U.S. Container Imports Set to Fall Below 2 Million TEU as Tariff Effects Intensify

Monthly import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is projected to drop below the 2 million TEU threshold for the remainder of 2025, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

The decline comes as retailers have already secured most holiday merchandise and continue to grapple with rising tariffs across multiple sectors. Industry experts attribute the downward trend to strategic frontloading by retailers who imported goods early to avoid escalating trade costs.

“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” explained NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “New sectoral tariffs continue to be announced, but most retailers are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”

The report highlights that major U.S. ports handled 2.32 million TEU in August, representing a 2.9% decrease from July’s 2.39 million TEU, which marked the peak month for 2025. Year-over-year, August volumes showed a slight 0.1% increase.

September figures, while not yet reported by ports, are projected at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8% compared to the same period last year. The forecast becomes increasingly concerning moving into the final quarter, with October expected to reach 1.97 million TEU (down 12.3% year-over-year), November at 1.75 million TEU (down 19.2%), and December falling to 1.72 million TEU (down 19.4%).

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, warns of broader economic implications: “Ongoing volatility in U.S. tariff policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see unpredictable shifts over the next four to six months. Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent.”

The latest tariff measures set to impact the maritime shipping industry include a 25% tariff on upholstered furniture regardless of country of origin, along with identical rates on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities. These are scheduled to take effect next week with further increases planned for January. Additionally, a delayed tariff increase on Chinese imports is slated for November 10, barring any new agreements or presidential intervention.

While the monthly volume declines are clearly linked to tariff avoidance strategies, the report notes that the significant year-over-year percentage drops also reflect last year’s elevated import levels, which were driven by concerns over potential port strikes in late 2024.

The first half of 2025 showed promising growth with a total of 12.53 million TEU, representing a 3.7% increase year-over-year. However, the full-year forecast now stands at 24.79 million TEU, a 2.9% decline from 2024’s 25.5 million TEU.

The October report represents a slight improvement over September’s forecast, which had projected the full-year 2025 volumes at 24.7 million TEU (down 3.4% year-over-year). This modest upward revision suggests the industry may be weathering tariff pressures marginally better than initially feared, though the overall trend remains decidedly negative.

Looking ahead to early 2026, the report projects January volumes at 1.87 million TEU (down 16.1% year-over-year) and February at 1.77 million TEU (down 12.8%).