Hurricane Melissa Explodes in Strength, Poses Peril For Jamaica

Oct 26, 2025 (Bloomberg) –Storm Melissa exploded in strength overnight, barreling toward an expected landfall Tuesday on Jamaica as a major hurricane and threatening deadly floods in Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba.

Melissa’s top winds reached 140 miles (225 kilometers) per hour early on Sunday, rising from 70 mph on Saturday. That makes it a Category 4 storm as it churns about 120 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory.

With the increase in wind speed easily surpassing the benchmark for rapid intensification, Melissa is forecast to reach Category 5, the most destructive hurricane level.

“Seek shelter now,” Robbie Berg, a warning coordination meteorologist at the US center, wrote in his forecast. On Jamaica, “damaging winds and heavy rainfall today and on Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before the strongest winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.”

The storm has already disrupted air travel, sent tourists scurrying for flights to get home and put regional governments on high alert as they face the potential of billions of dollars in damage and losses. The impact will be felt across the western Caribbean, where the storm’s flooding rains are blamed for at least four deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Melissa will make a second landfall in eastern Cuba on Wednesday before spiraling through the southern Bahamas and into the Atlantic. The US Navy evacuated non-essential personnel from its Guantanamo Bay base.

Melissa’s slow crawl across the region makes flooding worse because its heaviest rains will linger for days. In a warmer world due to climate change, the atmosphere holds more water, exacerbating heavy rains from tropical systems.

Many communities across the region may be left without power and communications for days or longer after the storm passes, the hurricane center said.

Jamaican state oil company Petrojam has activated emergency systems in preparation for the storm, and said it had two weeks of refined fuel reserves, as well as 10 days worth of liquefied petroleum gas to supply the island after Melissa passes, according to Jamaican Energy Minister Daryl Vaz.

Facilities in Kingston and Montego Bay were stocked with jet fuel and aviation gasoline to ensure aircraft refueling, Vaz said.

Prime Minister Andrew Holness also said the island had taken precautions to ensure telecommunications infrastructure can be brought back online quickly, with the goal of restoring 80% of service to most of the island within 72 hours of the storm.

Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, Jamaica, was closing at noon Sunday, according to a statement. The Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston is set to shut on Monday, the Jamaica Gleaner newspaper cited Vaz as saying.

At least 90 flights between the two airports and US destinations have been canceled, according to FlightAware.

Warmer Water Melissa has drawn on an untapped reservoir of warm water across the Caribbean because while there have been 13 storms in the Atlantic so far this year, none have ventured into that part of the ocean, said Tyler Roys, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.

The water’s heat, which is fuel for hurricanes, is running 3F to 5F (2C to 3C) above normal for this time of year and is approaching 90F (32C) in some places.

Losses on Jamaica may reach $14 billion, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. The storm may cause an additional $5 billion in damages in Cuba.

Watson previously worked on an Organization of American States disaster mitigation project for the region and helped develop hurricane damage maps for Jamaica.

“Hurricane Melissa is just about the worst scenario you can imagine,” he said. He compared it to Hurricane Gilbert, which caused $7 billion in losses when it struck in 1988. “Melissa will probably cause twice that,” he said.

Jamaica, including its many waterfront resorts, is a popular tourist spot and a regular destination for cruises from the US and other countries.

Across the mountainous islands in the western Caribbean, as much as 30 inches (76 centimeters) of rain may fall, with isolated spots getting up to 40 inches, according to the hurricane center.

Melissa will also push ocean water as much as 13 feet above ground level as it washes ashore. Almost half of all deaths in hurricanes typically come from drowning. While Melissa’s winds may drop slightly as it makes landfall, the difference between a Category 4 or 5 storm won’t matter much in terms of the extent of damage, the hurricane center said.

“If this forecast holds up, and it seems on track as of this morning, the impacts will be horrific,” Watson said.